A Minimalist Empirical Orbital Debris/Meteoroid Hazard Model for the Space Shuttle
- Paper number
IAC-05-B6.2.01
- Author
Dr. Mark J. Matney, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), United States
- Year
2005
- Abstract
Impact hazards due to orbital debris and meteoroids for the US Space Shuttle and other spacecraft have been studied for many years. To date, many sophisticated environment models (such as NASA’s ORDEM2000) and collision hazard models (such as NASA’s Bumper) have been developed to accurately assess the overall risk to orbiting vehicles. However, as models get progressively more complex, it is sometimes useful to assess the results at a “back-of-the-envelope” scale. This technique is necessary for those outside a narrow technical specialty to understand and critically examine the assumptions and computations of the models. In an effort to address this challenge, we present in this paper an empirical model of the US Space Shuttle orbital debris/meteoroid hazard based on empirical data and a minimum of model assumptions. Data from non-critical damage on returned Shuttle surfaces (radiators, windows, etc.) is used to quantify the probability of critical damage in a simple calculation of the relative probability that the same impact could have occurred on certain other areas of the Shuttle where the impact would have caused critical damage. This paper examines the benefits and limitations of this approach and compares the results with those of the more sophisticated models.
- Abstract document