Is the World Ready for High-Speed Intercontinental Package Delivery (Yet)?
- Paper number
IAC-08.D2.4.5
- Author
Dr. John Olds, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), United States
- Coauthor
Mr. A.C. Charania, SpaceWorks Commercial, United States
- Coauthor
Mr. Derek Webber, Spaceport Associates, United States
- Coauthor
Mr. Jon Wallace, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), United States
- Coauthor
Mr. Michael Kelly, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), United States
- Year
2008
- Abstract
This paper examines the prospects of a successful high-speed package delivery service for high-priority intercontinental cargo delivery, notionally to be undertaken within the next decade. The topic is investigated from both a technical/vehicle design point-of-view and an economics/business case point-of-view. We start from the assumption that high-speed cargo delivery, for high value, time-critical cargos will precede a market for passengers due to its less stringent technology requirements and lower economic barriers against vehicle development. We assume the establishment of a limited number of facilities for the launch and landing of a new class of hypersonic vehicles on several continents (North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia). These airports/spaceports serve as key nodes in the global high-speed transportation network, and each operates one or more flights per day. In our research, emphasis was placed on flight operations between the eastern United States and western Europe, but analysis of additional nodes is also performed. We have developed a representative conceptual design for a single-stage, exoatmospheric flight vehicle that could serve this market. The concept utilizes a unique combined-cycle hypersonic propulsion system to achieve high speed flight. Similar to the Sanger Silbervogel concept explored in the mid-20th century, our modern fast-package delivery vehicle would utilize a periodic (skipping) trajectory to extend its range for a given propellant and payload mass. Propulsion would be provided by a combination of hydrocarbon-fueled turbine-based airbreathing engines for operations up to Mach 2.5 and a unique scram-rocket engine for high Mach operations. The vehicle would take off horizontally from a new airport/spaceport, accelerate to Mach 15 - 18, skip across the atmosphere toward its intercontinental destination (nominally operating between stratospheric and exoatmospheric altitudes) , eventually landing horizontally. This vehicle is designed roughly around the guidelines established for the emerging V-Prize. The V-Prize promotes a near-term commercially-developed vehicle to demonstrate transatlantic flight from the eastern U.S. to western Europe in under an hour. Our concept is not unlike the U.S. Hypersoar concept advanced in the late 1990's and shares similar technologies with Europe's current LAPCAT concept for ultra-fast intercontinental passenger service. The new concept is assessed and sized in a multidisciplinary design environment, considering propulsion, aerodynamics, mass properties, aerothermodynamics, trajectory optimization, remote guidance and control, development costs, production costs, flight reliability, and ground operations and maintenance activities. Specific technology synergies with ongoing hypersonic technology maturation programs such as DARPA's FALCON and Blackswift, the U.S. Air Force's X-51 program, and ongoing NASA and international hypersonics research activities are discussed. The paper discusses unique or "open" challenges that remain to be solved before such a vehicle can be fielded, and the impact of those technology challenges on technical feasibility, development cost, risk, and schedule. Environmental, regulatory, and political challenges are also introduced and briefly discussed. Parallels to Europe's recently-terminated Concorde program (for passengers) are introduced. Secondly, the paper presents findings related to the market economics and flight scheduling constraints that are inherent in a fast package delivery business case. Market size and price elasticity curves have been developed for several classes of high-priority cargo that would be likely candidates to use such a service on a regular basis. These classes of cargo include packages and cargo items for which there might be a premium paid for speed, particularly if door-to-door service can be achieved within the next business day or the second business day following the original shipping time. The market curves and overall schedule constraints are used to develop a simple business case model for a vertically integrated business that first develops the flight vehicles and facilities, and then operates them in regular service between transportation nodes. The business model and market curves are explored parametrically, varying market size as a function of price, number of daily flights, and cargo delivered per flight (thus also affecting the physical size and costs of the hypersonic vehicle). The paper shows that the business case for this market requires very aggressive assumptions in order to achieve a positive return on investment. Facilities acquisition costs must be offset by local and national governments. Key flight vehicle technologies must be matured outside the budget of the notional fast-package delivery company (nominally through government civil or military efforts). Time-sensitive, high-priority cargo markets must all be scaled by an order-of-magnitude larger than current estimates in order to achieve a sufficient financial incentive. The challenges of the business case are summarized and discussed and are used to answer the question, "Is the World Ready for High-Speed Intercontinental Package Delivery (Yet)?"
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-08.D2.4.5.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.