Disruptive Technologies in Space Research & Development Programs

Paper number

IAC-09.E3.P.10

Author

Mr. Paul Guthrie, The Tauri Group, United States

Year

2009

Abstract

Government agencies, military organizations, corporations, and investors are increasingly attempting to predict and plan for disruptive technologies; those that will dramatically change the way they operate in the future. Similar concepts may be called revolutionary, transformational, game-changing, or surprise technologies.  What these disruptions have in common is that a new technology alters the normal way of business; it may create an urgent response to adapt to an adversary; require the reconfiguration of systems that must interface with the new technology; or simply render an alterative technology obsolete by reducing costs or transforming performance. Disruptive technologies can have global effects on governments, businesses, and consumers.
This paper will consider disruptive technologies as they apply to space systems. After defining and discussing these concepts, this paper will review strategies and policies that, depending on the organization and organizational goals, anticipate, leverage, avoid, or embrace disruptive technologies.  Examples include military strategies for anticipating surprise capabilities, space agency research and development strategies that accommodate investment in areas that may appear to have no immediate large impact, and investment by private companies in technologies that appear to have low margins and limited market potential.
Finally, this paper profiles several examples of disruptive technologies that the space industry has seen in recent years, as well as some that may be poised to affect the industry in the next 20 years.  

Abstract document

IAC-09.E3.P.10.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-09.E3.P.10.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.