A Statistical Analysis on the Future Debris Environment
- Paper number
IAC-05-B6.2.02
- Author
Dr. J.-C. Liou, ESCG/ERC, United States
- Year
2005
- Abstract
Modeling the future orbital debris environment is a difficult task. In addition to making reasonable assumptions on key parameters such as future launch traffic and solar activity, one needs to rely on a Monte Carlo process to evaluate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Even with the same input parameters, the outcome of the projected debris populations could vary significantly from one Monte Carlo run to the next. A common approach to assess the growth of future debris populations is to take the average of multiple Monte Carlo runs. The number of available runs is typically between 10 and 30, depending on the speed of the simulation program and computer. However, the "mean growth" from a limited number of Monte Carlo simulations may not reveal the complete picture of what the future environment might be. In this paper, we analyze a total of 200 Monte Carlo simulations of the future debris environment using the NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model LEGEND. The input parameters are identical for all the simulations. We examine the projected debris populations in terms of the mean, median, standard deviation, and uncertainty-in-the-mean. The number of runs needed to derive a stable mean population is discussed. We also analyze the distribution of the debris populations at the end of the 100-year projection. Good scenarios are compared with bad scenarios. Triggers for the worst case scenarios are identified and discussed.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-05-B6.2.02.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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