Advanced Space Concepts for the Far Future - Considerations fro Selection Strategies
- Paper number
IAC-05-D4.1.01
- Author
Dr. Alexander M. Jablonski, Canadian Space Agency, Canada
- Year
2005
- Abstract
There is increasing activity among national and supra-national space agencies and their affiliated organizations in more clearly envisaging the Far Future. One objective is to identify the plausible contexts for space colonization to take of and the Advanced Space Concepts (ASCs) for the "what", and the "how" to make space colonization a reality. Today, NASA clearly recognizes the value of ASC within the context of an advanced concepts office (ACO). An example is the successful operation of the NASA affiliated institute, NIAC (NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts), which opened in 1998. NIAC, however, focuses mainly on advanced space technologies and their major impact on future missions in the time frame of 10 to 40 years. The NIAC process does not explicitly include the other considerations known as STEEPV (Sociological, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-related). There are two broadly defined alternatives to identify ASCs and set guiding priorities for the necessary developmental programs. One is collegial control over project selection as typified in independent peer review. The other broadly defined selection strategy includes, in addition to expert collegial knowledge, consideration for the needs of other sectors that do not share a primarily collegial oriented perspective, but are nevertheless interested in focused developments that could advance their own causes, even if only indirectly. This can be achieved through finding common cause; building new alliances and reinforcing them, and creating broad-based stakeholder input and buy-in to new ideas that emerge from an interactive consultative process. An earlier paper described "Exploratory Foresight" that applies STEEPV considerations comprehensively to identify and elaborate several alternate so called "Exploratory Scenarios" situated throughout a period in the far future that is relevant to ASCs. Once identified such scenarios may be ranked prior to selecting one or a small number of ASCs to focus a request (or call) for proposals. A base would be an example of an ASC resulting from a scenario for colonization of a region of Space, a planet or a moon elaborated with comprehensive STEEPV consideration of the imperatives for its creation. Foresight's philosophy provides for inclusion of as broad a spectrum of perspectives as is required for a particular study to specify a framework that is adaptable and resilient enough to see a major space initiative through to completion. This paper discusses existing approaches to identifying ASCs with their advantages and disadvantages, reviewing Canadian and other nations' experiences. It proposes a structure of an ACO at the national or supra-national level and further proposes inclusion of STEEPV considerations for topic selection within its prescribed mandate. It discusses also the distinct inclusion of scientifically oriented space concepts along with those that are technically oriented, and also considers joint evolution of space programs as required in the case of future solar and extra-solar exploration.
- Abstract document