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  • Relevance of Economic Data in the Pursuit of Orbital Launch Vehicle Programs, a U.S. Perspective

    Paper number

    IAC-05-E3.3.04

    Author

    Dr. Henry Hertzfeld, George Washington University, United States

    Year

    2005

    Abstract
    Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NASP, X-33, NLI, and SLI, not to mention other cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes, which share some similar technological problems.
    
    The economic aspects of these programs equal the importance of the technical aspects. By downplaying economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies and their commercial partners have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.
    
    The transportation revolution that was envisaged in pursuing these programs has not occurred. Access to space remains very expensive; the launch success rate has improved little; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry, including launching overcapacity, has also worked against U.S. investment in new vehicles. Unless unforeseen technical breakthroughs occur, orbital space access is likely to continue as a costly venture under conditions of market stagnation.
    
    Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. Nevertheless, high launch costs, overall demand for vehicles, and NASA’s future plans will certainly influence the launch industry. This paper examines the economic and management lessons of past U.S. launch programs, analyzes the issues behind the demand for launches, and projects the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a complex marketplace. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic launch marketplace considerations as on solving new technical challenges.
    Abstract document

    IAC-05-E3.3.04.pdf

    Manuscript document

    IAC-05-E3.3.04.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

    To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.