Satellite Reliability Assessment Based on Bayes Approach
- Paper number
IAC-06-B5.7.09
- Author
Mr. Guo ZhenWei, DFH Satellite Co. Ltd., China
- Year
2006
- Abstract
Abstract: Reliability requirements on spacecraft such as satellite contains given quantized index .It is very difficult to assess satellite reliability due to its complex system, long mission period, high reliability requirements and very few samples. Classical assessment approach is to assess satellite reliability by test data before launching, but such data is too limited to assess satellite reliability for purpose of long term flight mission with several years, it can not evaluate inherent reliability of satellite rightly. However, the approach of satellite reliability assessment based on Bayes takes the message of failure rate of parts as pro-testing message of electronic units, and takes into account on-the-spot testing message of products on the premise of conjugate pro-testing distribution synthetically. The approach of satellite assessment based on Bayes theorem has two obvious advantages .the first is to use prediction message as pro-testing message to make up for the question of “very little samples” of satellite products; the second is the weight of pro-testing message more and more small with increasing testing messages, in other words, assessed reliability is close to real reliability of products. This paper not only introduces the idea, approach for satellite assessment based on Bayes approach, but also discusses its development trend. Key words: satellite; reliability assessment; Bayes approach
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-06-B5.7.09.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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