Modeling of “Zones of Mechanical Conflicts” in a System of Orbital Objects

Paper number

IAC-06-B6.P.2.04

Author

Ms. Tatyana V. Labutkina, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Coauthor

Prof. Vladimir O. Larin, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Coauthor

Mr. Vladimir Belikov, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Coauthor

Mr. Vladimir Bulanenko, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Coauthor

Ms. Tatyana Mokshankina, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Year

2006

Abstract

At present the number of orbital objects (satellites and debris objects) in the near-Earth space is ever increasing and in certain cases it is useful to consider the multitude of the objects as a complex multi-element system. One of the problems of analysis of such a system is forecast of “mechanical conflicts” (collisions) between elements. In addition to methods based on modeling orbital motion, other approaches can be efficient. Especially when it is required not only to forecast closing in of the orbital objects at a distance dangerous by a possibility of collisions but also to indicate areas of space where collisions can potentially occur, to forecast evolutions of such areas, to analyze the degree of their danger.

A “quick” (time-efficient) solution of the problem of analysis of the “conflict potential” of elements of the system of orbital objects has been proposed. The task is split in two parts. First, for a system of orbital objects evolution of potential zones of mechanical conflicts is modeled (up to their extreme cases of appearance and disappearance). Further, with the account of periodicity of the motion of orbital objects time intervals on which the objects pass these conflict zones are analyzed. The degree of danger of these zones is evaluated by the number of dangerous closeness of the objects on the period of forecast.

The forecast of zones of mechanical conflicts is based on the prediction of evolution of “nodes of mechanical conflicts” (pairs of segments of the orbits at a distance close enough for a possibility of collisions). In turn, this prediction of evolution of the nodes is based on modeling of the motion of the line of intersection of the orbital planes and forecast of the angle between them. For each pair of the dangerous sections points at the closest distance between each other are selected (node points). The conflict node is indicated by the coordinates of geocentric equatorial system of the pair of its node points. The dangerous segments of the orbits set the values of true anomalies on the first circuit corresponding to the points limiting these segments. Approaches to “acceleration” of forecast of mechanical conflicts have been developed, implementation of which is possible for the cases when the system of orbital objects includes regularly structured groups of objects, which allows one to highlight symmetrical groups. Besides, it is proposed to take into account quasi-periodical nature of appearance of a number of the nodes of mechanical conflicts, which also helps to accelerate the solution.

Abstract document

IAC-06-B6.P.2.04.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-06-B6.P.2.04.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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