The Future of Space: Scenario Based Approach
- Paper number
IAC-06-D3.1.02
- Author
Prof. Ernesto Vallerani, International Space Pioneers, Italy
- Coauthor
Mr. John C. Mankins, ARTEMIS Innovation Management Solutions, LLC, United States
- Year
2006
- Abstract
The Study Group of the Commission III “ Space Technology and System Developments “ of the international Academy of Astronautics engaged in the study on “Strategies and Concepts for Future Space Exploration and Development “ has formulated a” Scenario- Based Approach” to evaluate the Role of Space Enterprises in the Future Evolution of Humankind. Four distinct Future Scenarios have been framed: Scenario Alpha “Business as Usual. Scenario Beta “Pursuing Social Benefits “ Scenario Gamma “Energy/Environment Crises” Scenario Delta “Assuring Global Security” In response to each Scenario the Space Activities are expected to follow Alternate Paths that are described in some detail. The Space Enterprises Role in supporting Human Needs according to the Four Scenarios identified for the World Future has been analyzed, case by case, considering the Space Applications/Utilizations grouped in Six Sectors: Science, Information/Communication Applications, Earth Observation Applications, Security and Military, Commercial Initiatives and Exploration /Development Enterprises. Four Levels of Impact have been introduced to evaluate the influence each Sector might have : Low, Medium, High and Very High. The preliminary results are discussed and compared and on the basis of their evaluation a set of Space Initiatives for Each Scenario has been identified depicting Four Visions of the Future that bring in evidence a quite different relevance of the Potential Space Applications
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-06-D3.1.02.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.