A Stepping-Stone Analysis of Human Space Mission Development Strategies
- Paper number
IAC-06-D3.1.08
- Author
Mr. Gordon Woodcock, Gray Research, Inc., United States
- Coauthor
Dr. George Morgenthaler, University of Colorado at Boulder, United States
- Year
2006
- Abstract
Human space exploration is costly, and needs to accomplish practical in addition to scientific benefits to be sustainable. If scientific knowledge is the only product of space exploration it is hard not to conclude that robotic systems return more science per dollar than the far more costly human missions. The proposed paper performs a stepping-stone analysis looking forward to practical benefits from human space missions and operations. Over the past 40 years, many ideas intended as practical applications have been proposed. Some examples are (no particular order): (1) Solar power satellites, large-scale energy from space (Glaser, 1968 et seq); (2) Space settlements, permanent human outposts to civilizations beyond Earth (O’Neill, 1974 et seq); (3) In-space production of solar power satellites from lunar resources, about 1976; (4) Lunar power system, Criswell, about 1980; (5) Nuclear waste disposal in space (various, 1972 et seq); (6) Space asset, e.g. GEO satellites, servicing and restoration; (7) Lunar and/or asteroid mining for platinum-group metals (notably, recent book by Wingo); (8) Lunar mining for helium-3 (Kulcinski, Santarius, Schmitt, about 1980, et seq); (9) Lunar production of oxygen and other propellants; many, including Woodcock, Koelle; (10) Climate control, e.g. by sunshades between Sun and Earth; (11) Extremely hazardous and very large very high vacuum laboratories, e.g. on the Moon. Most of these are far in the future compared to a return to the Moon. Some, notably platinum-group metals, are possibly not so far in the future. All are challenging to very challenging from a financial perspective. If one accepts that the future of human space missions must lead to practical benefits for our civilization on Earth, requirements are placed on the characteristics of potentially near-term exploration missions in order that they achieve useful stepwise progress towards the eventual technical capabilities needed. These are mainly target costs and levels of technology needed to reduce costs to the target level. The proposed paper explores the financial/economic challenges of these applications, and considers technical capabilities that have the potential to meet these challenges. This permits placing these in a relative time and technology context, and producing a rough road map of space development technologies. Finally, we offer recommendations for shaping near-term mission programs to make technological and operational progress towards these applications. One benefit is to make near-term human exploration missions more economical, more evolvable, and more sustainable, for example, designing for incremental evolution to reusable systems.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-06-D3.1.08.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.