Integrating National Space Visions

Paper number

IAC-06-E3.1.A.06

Author

Mr. Brent Sherwood, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, United States

Year

2006

Abstract

Nations shape their space programs around vision-based themes.  Drivers for setting vision include: demonstrated and anticipated needs, historical traditions of what is important to do, comparative standing with respect to other nations, national pride, perpetuation and development of particular skills, willingness to depend on other nations, belief in commercial markets, and manifest destiny.

National space programs are investments in the public good.  The social contract between a people and their government is based on shared belief about the value proposition of public-funded operations and investments.  Like governance, defense, power and transportation infrastructure, environmental protection, frontier technologies (e.g., nanotechnology, biotechnology, agricultural technology), and public welfare (e.g., health care, education assistance, indigent support), space program investments are made in the belief that the substantial resources they require will yield corresponding societal benefits.  General acceptance of the value proposition is the fundamental goodness metric.  

This paper examines value proposition assumptions for various models nations may use to underlay the visions that shape their space programs.  The principal models are: hoarding, emulating, self-sufficient, and interdependent.  With respect to these alternative models, the paper describes and scores the visions currently shaping the world’s major space programs against the vision drivers, characterizes their robustness, and assesses their value propositions.  The interdependence model is shown to maximize the global value proposition by leveraging the total human investment most efficiently.  Societal value propositions are described for an array of vision alternatives consistent with the interdependent model.  Taken together, these vision alternatives could accommodate space activities proposed over the past two decades as feasible for the 21st century, and accelerate the human development of space. 

Abstract document

IAC-06-E3.1.A.06.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-06-E3.1.A.06.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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