“So we have landed on the Moon. And what is next?”
- Paper number
IAC-06-E3.1.A.07
- Author
Mr. Jakub Ryzenko, Poland
- Year
2006
- Abstract
Currently the highlighted goal of space exploration is a human landing on the Moon. It has been set as a strategic goal for NASA and, in general, seems to be receiving a stable political support. Also other space agencies take this American strategy into account in their own planning. What seems to be missing is a clear, longer-term perspective – exploration rationale reaching beyond the return to the Moon.
Historically Moon landing had already been set as a goal, but the effort was not sustainable. The goal has been achieved, but public and political support deteriorated during the second phase of the program. If exploration is to be sustainable, we cannot afford to repeat that mistake.
The purpose of the paper is to present some situations that may exist in 2018-2020, after the goal has been achieved, and to ask several questions: What may be the strategic interests of national actors and perspectives of decision-makers and general public? What options of further exploration activities may be available? What challenges will have to be faced? And probably the most difficult of them: looking back, can exploration results justify the effort?
However it is impossible to foresee the answers and the scope of possibilities is enormous, even the limited set of potential answers allows for much better comprehension of future situation. And further, more extensive research may provide a ground for better long-term strategic planning.
Moreover, for the purpose of analysing sustainability of exploration, two scenarios are compared. The first one assumes activities are conducted in a traditional manner, contract-based. The second attempts to project results of extensive involvement of entrepreneurial activities and service-procurement approach. Comparison allows for identification of certain added values and risks of both practices.
Development of the scenarios is based on published NASA and ESA strategic documents, declarations of other space players and results of different future research projects, in particular the OECD Space 2030 project.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-06-E3.1.A.07.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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