Threats from Near-Earth Objects and the Collective Action Dilemma

Paper number

IAC-06-E3.1.B.07

Author

Mr. Mark Avnet, Massachussets Institute of Technology (MIT), United States

Year

2006

Abstract

The potential threat of near-Earth objects (NEOs) presents a difficult policy problem. Although the impact of a sufficiently large asteroid or comet would be catastrophic, the probability of an actual collision of this magnitude is extraordinarily small. In addition, awaiting conclusive scientific evidence that an object is on a collision course with the Earth could prove disastrous, as an effective response would be impossible by the time such evidence is collected. A solution to this problem, however, can be found in the application of the precautionary principle. This paper views the NEO threat through the lens of this decision-making framework that is normally applied to more prosaic environmental, security, and health concerns. The paper examines a variety of approaches to dealing with uncertainty and considers how they can be applied to the NEO issue. The analysis leads to the question: why have national governments not begun a formalized response to the threat? The paper acknowledges the common-sense answers, which are the so-called "giggle factor" and the inherent myopia of democratic politics. It then takes the argument a step further by arguing that the lack of a global response stems primarily from the collective action dilemma found in the literature of political economy. Whereas the costs of preparing a response to a potential threat would be concentrated on the citizens of participating nations, the benefits would be diffuse across every nation and every person around the globe. Under these circumstances, an institutional (and, in this case, international) response is necessary to ensure the pursuit of a responsible solution. 

The analysis of this paper leads to four recommendations to policymakers around the globe. The recommendations are: (1) to invest in the development of observational techniques that not only will improve the capacity to detect, study, and catalog NEOs but that also will contribute directly to the goals of space science; (2) to initiate a program of public education to communicate completely and effectively the NEO threat; (3) to begin preliminary research and development on substantive NEO threat mitigation techniques as early as practical; and (4) to establish an independent international body to coordinate global efforts in preparation for and response to a potential collision. The world cannot afford to take the chance, however small, of being caught by surprise with the catastrophic results of a large asteroid or comet colliding with the Earth.

Abstract document

IAC-06-E3.1.B.07.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-06-E3.1.B.07.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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