Assessment of the factors that could lead to a productive future international partnership in space exploration
- Paper number
IAC-06-E3.1.B.01
- Author
Dr. Alain Dupas, Collège de Polytechnique, France
- Coauthor
Dr. John M. Logsdon, Space Policy Institute, George Washington University, United States
- Year
2006
- Abstract
The new Vision for Space Exploration announced on January 14, 2004 by President George W. Bush was received by the international space partners of the United States with both skepticism and concerns: skepticism for the capability of NASA to engage, after the Columbia accident, in a new major, difficult and long-term human spaceflight endeavor, “to the Moon, Mars and beyond”; concerns about the immediate future of the on-going large scale cooperative program – the International Space Station – considered a possible victim of the new priority given to distant human space flight in the United States. The first year following the announcement seemed to confirm the skepticism and fear of the partners: very few practical steps were made by NASA towards the implementation of the VSE while little concrete progress was made to reinsure the partners on the ISS future and to turn the invitation to join VSE into an attractive reality. The second year, marked by the arrival in April 2005, of a new NASA Administrator, Michael Griffin, saw significant progress on the two issues: in less than six months the Exploration System Architecture Study developed a real plan for transporting humans to the moon - the first exploratory destination in the Vision - before 2020; and during the last months of 2005, in the framework of the preparation of NASA FY2007 budget, a crucial decision was made to provide the necessary funding to support the final assembly of the ISS before Shuttle retirement in 2010 and to satisfy U.S. commitments to its international partners. Meanwhile Michael Griffin expressed a much stronger interest in the international dimension of the VSE: on November 1 he announced that it was time “to engage other nations on a bilateral and multilateral basis in more serious discussions on how we can form productive partnerships to advance the objectives of the Vision.” He added: ”now is the time to engage in substantive dialogue about what we can collectively do to establish new beachheads in space.” How could the positive evolution of U.S. human space flight policy in 2005and beginning of 2006 be translated during the next few years into a real new international human space flight cooperation, integrating the ISS program and its heritage with the drive towards the moon, Mars and beyond? It is not possible to answer this question on the technical and programmatic side: technical problems can always derail the course of the ISS program and the real decisions to confirm the development of the human moon exploration hardware are still years away. However it is already possible to assess the factors that could provide the basis of a future fruitful international partnership in space exploration. A tentative list of these factors is the following: 1. The capabilities (launch, in-space transportation, spacecraft, and surface systems and emerging technologies) that are either in existence and could be upgraded or modified for exploratory missions or capabilities that are likely to be developed, or potentially could be developed, in the coming 15-20 years by potential partners. 2. The intentions (or perhaps more accurately) preferences of current government, industrial, and technical leaders in the various countries and organizations that are the focus of this assessment with respect to potential contributions to a U.S.-led exploration effort based on their identified capabilities. 3. The likely evolution of government space policy in potential partner states over the next few years as decisions are made to develop partnership arrangements with the United States and/or among two or more other spacefaring countries without direct U.S. involvement. 4. Potential mechanisms for structuring international cooperation in space exploration. A number of such mechanisms have been suggested since the Vision was first announced. This paper would be based on recent studies carried out by the two authors.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-06-E3.1.B.01.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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