Sub-Orbital Space Tourism: Predictions of the Future Marketplace Using Agent-Based Modeling
- Paper number
IAC-06-E3.4.01
- Author
Mr. A.C. Charania, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), United States
- Coauthor
Dr. John Olds, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), United States
- Coauthor
Mr. Dominic DePasquale, SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), United States
- Year
2006
- Abstract
There are currently multiple companies competing to develop new and innovative vehicles to support the potentially emerging sub-orbital space tourism industry in a post X-Prize environment. Each of the services these companies will provide can vary along with the potential pricing strategies employed by each company. This examination uses available market demand data, along with predictions about the most likely future vehicle suppliers, to examine the economic viability of companies in the sub-orbital space tourism market. An economic and market simulation is performed using the Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) model. The NESC model is a dynamic, agent-based market simulation tool for the space marketplace. Each agent in the model is a representation of an entity within the space industry (consumers, producers, and the government) that provides or demands different products and services (in this case for the sub-orbital space tourism market). Each agent has certain behaviors and interacts with other agents, such actions possibly resulting in competition between firms and entrance of new competitors. The NESC model contains various future space markets and simulates the financial case of entities that undertake these projects. Within the NESC model, sub-orbital tourism companies seek to maximize profits while competing with one another for sales in a market composed of individual customers. The product offered by each sub-orbital tourism company can be differentiated in terms of the vehicle characteristics and customer experience. Companies autonomously decide the price they will charge for a flight aboard their vehicle and customers independently evaluate the products offered by the companies according to their individual price sensitivity, tastes, and preferences. Each customer may choose to purchase from among the company offerings or not at all. This examination looks at the effect of failure, government regulation, competition, and market growth on the economic impact of the providers of this service.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-06-E3.4.01.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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