Mars Mission Political Feasibility

Paper number

IAC-06-E5.P.01

Author

Mr. Fabio Sau, University of North Dakota, United States

Year

2006

Abstract

Manned Mission to Mars Political Feasibility Abstract
This research on political feasibility of a manned mission to Mars is meant to be an exploratory study on what have been the factors behind the failure of all the human Martian missions proposed thus far to or by the American political leadership. Our planned achievement is to identify the reasons why no human mission to Mars have – up to now - successfully passed the stage of agenda setting in American Space policy, even when the tremendous inertia of the legendary lunar landings was at its highest momentum.
The current technological and political challenge for humans in Space is to get out of the terrestrial gravitational well: then the entire Solar System is open to us, Moon, Mars, and beyond.
A thorough technical literature review of all the studies and proposals on a manned landing or fly-by of Mars – from the pioneering Von Braun to the latest Zubrin - will help the researcher to determine a list of variables, which affect the Space policy process and
that are particularly relevant during the agenda setting phase. Given the general assumption of considering each proposed mission to Mars as technically feasible, the
variables involved in this study are embodied by actors, individuals, and proactive pressure groups, all forces and players in the political arena.
An adaptation of the policy model as developed by John Kingdon will be used in the analysis as explorative instrument. Such representation and simplification of the
complicated and often unpredictable political reality makes use of three main streams of political and social forces, whose presence and activation are required to successfully influence top-level decision makers’ choices. The Kingdon model will not be tested during this study, but rather it will be used as a guide and tool to develop a list of independent and dependent variables that affect the policy process.
The submission of a questionnaire on the selected variables will allow to determine a scale of current and near future political feasibility for a Manned Mission to Mars. The results will be useful to politicians, NASA managers, researchers, and general public as guiding tools needed for a major decision in the challenging field of human spaceflight.

Abstract document

IAC-06-E5.P.01.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-06-E5.P.01.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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