Back to the Exploration Age: can we afford to be Venetians of the XXI century? or about strategic importance of historical analogy

Paper number

IAC-08.A3.2.INT22

Author

Mr. Jakub Ryzenko, Polish Space Office & Institute of International Relations, Warsaw University, Poland

Year

2008

Abstract

We are on a slow, but apparently a rather stable road to return to the Moon. More importantly, there is every indication that this will be achieved in an international manner. On the other hand, though, only the one nation will most probably retain a significant technical and operational advantage in accessing and operating on this “new land”.
It is a proper time to consider strategic question: How will this disparity affect global balance in a long-term perspective? Do other nations face a dilemma they do not fully realise yet? Is it at all possible to incorporate “unknown” into strategic equations?

It is beyond the scope of this paper to address all numerous dimensions of those questions, but instead it points to an interesting historical analogies. Venice was a major sea power of the late XV century, operating far more powerful fleets than Spain or Portugal. Iberian peninsula economy could not be compared to the Italian one. But it was not Venetians who sailed beyond the horizon, into an unknown. In a hundred years it was no longer Venice that mattered strategically.
Could that be foreseen? What could be a debate in Venice around 1500 on discovery of America? When the change of strategic balance should have been realised? Was it difficult to observe, to comprehend or to accept?

Lunar exploration may open a completely new dimension for public enterprises and commercial ventures. New opportunities – of unknown scale and in unknown time horizon – may arise. It is not a purpose of this paper to discuss technical probability of gaining significant economic benefits from lunar exploration. Instead, assuming such benefits may materialise, the questions for several nations are: How important can be the benefits of “unknown”? How to assess the moment the “unknown” can no longer be ignored? When the price is simply too high? And the most challenging: Can we afford to allow this to happened, when we stay aside? 

Abstract document

IAC-08.A3.2.INT22.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-08.A3.2.INT22.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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