A Monte Carlo approach for Statistical Conjunction Analysis of LEO Space Debris Environment
- Paper number
IAC-08.A6.5.14
- Author
Dr. Anilkumar A K, Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), VSSC, India
- Year
2008
- Abstract
Abstract: The number of space debris objects in the Low earth Orbits, especially in the Sun Synchronous Orbits, is alarmingly increasing and the 10 fragmentations occurred during the year 2007 added more risk in this region. It is imperative to study the risk of conjunctions in the Low Earth orbits to plan future course of actions regarding the control and mitigation of space debris objects. A statistical approach to obtain the number of conjunctions in a prescribed altitude bin considering the various inclination bands was presented in an earlier study. But as is known the catalogued data of space objects has its own inherent inaccuracies. Also a target object will have some dispersion on the orbital parameters at the design level. This paper utilizes the Monte Carlo approach to account for these uncertainties on orbital parameters of the catalogued objects and the target object to obtain the expected number of conjunctions during a short period together with the error bands in number of conjunctions. References 1. Orbital debris Quarterly News, Vol. 12, Issue 1, January 2008. 2. Anilkumar. A.K., “New Perspectives for Analyzing The Breakup Environment, Evolution, Collision Risk and Reentry of Space Debris Objects,” Ph.D. thesis, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India, 2004. 3. Anilkumar, A. K. and Sudheer Reddy D., “Statistical Conjunction Analysis and Modeling of LEO Catalogued Objects”, Under Review, Submitted to Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
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