A New Aspect of Modeling and Analysis of Global Scenarios of Development of Multitude of Orbital Objects

Paper number

IAC-08.A6.5.12

Author

Ms. Tatyana V. Labutkina, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Coauthor

Prof. Vladimir O. Larin, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Coauthor

Mr. Vladimir Belikov, Dniepropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

Year

2008

Abstract

The problem of space debris is a part of a more general problem, which is to be considered as a whole, – ever increasing "pollution" of the near-Earth cosmic space by orbital bodies, including space vehicles. One of the most obvious negative aspects of increasing number of moving objects in the near-Earth space is a possibility of their collision (mechanical conflicts). 

At present research of the global perspectives of development of the multitude of the orbital bodies from the point of view of analysis of their mechanical conflicts is reduced mainly either to probabilistic forecast of the increase of the number of possible collisions or to modeling motion of orbital objects taking into account their possible collisions (including uncontrolled chain reactions of collisions). However with the growing number of relatively large orbital objects (including space vehicles) other approaches to modeling global scenarios of development of the multitude of orbital bodies of this kind become important.

Collisions of orbital bodies are possible in a certain zone surrounding segments of the calculated trajectories, which are at a distance dangerous from the point of view of possible collisions in case of deviation of orbital objects from the calculated orbits. We will call such a zone a potentially dangerous zone. The growth of the number of orbital bodies leads to growth of the number of potentially dangerous zones and their overlapping. Therefore in analysis of global scenarios of growth of the number of orbital objects modeling of motion (including quasi-periodical one) of the potentially dangerous zones is interesting. The "density" of filling the space by these zones, overlapping of zones, appearance and evolution of "clouds" of conflict zones are analyzed.

Such an approach allows one in each particular case to form an assumption about the degree of required accuracy of corrections of orbits (which influences the size of the dangerous zones), to formulate requirements to the possible intervals between values of parameters of space vehicles of different satellite systems, to analyze existence of free space for implementing maneuvers of space vehicles, to forecast situations of total coverage by conflict zones of substantial space (which is an indirect evidence of possibilities of an uncontrolled chain reactions of conflicts). With the use of quick methods of evaluation of the degree of danger of conflict zones it is possible to obtain a generalized global picture of increase of danger of collisions.

A method based on the described approach to modeling global scenarios of development of system of orbital bodies has been developed. Scenarios of filling of various areas of heights by space vehicles, including the situation of considerable growth of the number of the vehicles, have been investigated. 

The proposed approach can be a useful supplement to the existing set of methods of global scenarios of development of the system of orbital bodies.

Abstract document

IAC-08.A6.5.12.pdf

Manuscript document

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