Taking the Long View in Space: Stepping Stones that Balance Strategic Value and Tactical Needs

Paper number

IAC-08.D3.1.6

Author

Mr. John Mankins, United States

Year

2008

Abstract

There is an inevitable struggle between space visionaries and engineers; the former envision optimistically a range of ambitious goals for the far term that can provide meaning to space programs, and the latter focus on the immediate feasibility of projects and missions.    Unfortunately, it is sometimes unclear how tactically framed space projects using near-term technologies are meaningfully linked to longer-term purposes that are essential to justifying the substantial investments required for space activities.  Quite naturally, when this uncertainty exists in the minds of the public and policy-makers, the result can be quite damaging to space program funding.  Space advocates often argue that this uncertainty is really a failure to “market” space effectively: “is only we explain better, then the politicians will see that we are right”.  Unfortunately, is can be a much more serious problem: massive space system development projects chosen because they avoid the need for new technologies may often possess minimal value for the farther-term. 

An excellent example may be found in the debate in the 1960s concerning lunar orbit rendezvous (LOR) versus low Earth orbit assembly.  The latter would have established capabilities that were of enduring value to diverse, highly ambitious future space missions.  The former allowed the goals of the Apollo program to be accomplished more quickly, achieving the tactical policy objective of “beating the Soviet Union to the Moon”.  The result was both the success of a mission to the Moon “within this decade”, and the failure of the subsequent immediate cancellation of the Apollo program.    Looking forward, the goal of establishing outposts and eventually settlements beyond Earth’s boundaries remains a compelling purpose for many space advocates.   The path to such goals will be filled with diverse interim objectives; any one of which can be achieved using systems and technologies with little or no relevance to the longer- term vision.  The fact remains true that only by pursuing projects that are both doable and that can viewed by the public and policy-makers as worth the investment can support be sustained.   Finding a successful balance between the two perspectives of far-term vision and near-term steps is at the core of the concept of a “stepping stone approach” to space exploration and utilization.

This paper will explore the general characteristics of this challenge for space programs.  It will also identify and discuss several of the key space exploration and utilization challenges that might best be solved by means that are both strategic and tactical; including space transportation, space operations, space energy, deep-space habitation, and space resources.  The paper will conclude by discussing several specific new systems concepts and technologies that might serve as true stepping stones to an ambitious and sustainable future in space.  

Abstract document

IAC-08.D3.1.6.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-08.D3.1.6.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.