A Long-Term Vision for Entrepreneurial Space Investment

Paper number

IAC-08.E6.2.1

Author

Mr. Thomas Olson, Exodus Consulting Group, United States

Year

2008

Abstract

In 50 years of space launch, we have seen only one viable commercial business model. That model is both capital intensive, and does nothing to open up the solar system to independent exploration, resource development, and settlement. If we are ever going to be serious about expanding human civilization beyond  Earth, we need to rethink what it takes to create a true private commercial space economic sector. While angel investors for two decades got caught in the spell of the "coolness factor" of human "space tourism", most found that it, too, was very capital intensive, had a high burn rate, rarely, if ever, paid any dividends and rarely solved real problems. One of the reasons for this is that we, whether in the industry itself or in the advocacy community, often look only at the peak  - launch - of a very large "pyramid" of technologies and services that needs to form the base of an overall infrastructure.

The most successful entrepreneurs are, first and foremost, problem solvers. However, it seems the problem many of the "space entrepreneurs" one encounters are trying to solve is getting themselves into space by attempting to build a commercial "tourist" vehicle to bypass the NASA gatekeepers. When one tries to grab the brass ring in one pass, and expects investors to go along for the ride and not see any returns for perhaps a decade, it should come as no surprise that there are few takers.

The author claims it is time to took a new look at space commerce - and investment therein - with a "blank-sheet" approach, beginning with the over-arching picture of the "goals" of space expansion, (low-cost access, exploration for knowledge and material resources, permanent settlements), followed by the specific problems we'll need to solve along the way (human factors, necessary technologies). When viewed from that perspective, there can be found many opportunities that may not look like "space" investments at first glance. Nevertheless, new "crossover" technologies that help to solve both a "space" problem as well as offer near-term profit in terrestrial markets, can help attract far more capital for long-term infrastructure development than the expensive, overreaching "build-the-whole-widget" space tourism companies we've seen to date. The author will offer examples of these technologies, and why they are important.

By redefining what it means to be a "space investment", the realization comes that there is a lot more commercial "space investing" going on than originally believed, and the author will offer ideas as to where to look for future opportunities.

Abstract document

IAC-08.E6.2.1.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-08.E6.2.1.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.