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  • Updated First Order Value Analysis for Orbital Debris Removal: The Business Case.

    Paper number

    IAC-10,A6,2,12,x8132

    Author

    Mr. Leonard D Vance, Raytheon, United States

    Coauthor

    Dr. Allan Mense, Raytheon, United States

    Year

    2010

    Abstract
    Multiple recent events involving collisions with commercial satellites have brought forward concerns about continuing orbital environmental deterioration.  This paper derives first order monetary benefits for removing individual small and/or large debris objects from the high value sun-synchronous orbits.  These analyses are intended to serve as an economic metric by which various debris removal methods can then be evaluated.
    
    Orbital debris flux level estimates from NASA’s updated ORDEM2010 model are used to establish small debris population estimates.  When combined with the replacement cost of satellites in sun-synchronous orbit, the present value of removing individual small (0.5 cm to 2.0 cm) objects from orbit is derived. 
    
    Large object removal value is complicated by the necessity of incorporating effects due to the impact fragmentation seen with any object about 10 cm or larger.  Breakup models published by NASA (Johnson et al, 2001) provide a basis for establishing fragmentation statistics.  Assuming the current population of operational sun synchronous satellites, removal value is then derived via present value analysis.
    Abstract document

    IAC-10,A6,2,12,x8132.brief.pdf

    Manuscript document

    (absent)