Energy, Incessant Obsolescence, and the First Interstellar Missions
- Paper number
IAC-10.D4.2.7
- Author
Mr. Marc G. Millis, Tau Zero Foundation, United States
- Year
2010
- Abstract
Projections for the first and best launch opportunities for interstellar missions are calculated based on 25 years of data on historic energy trends, societal priorities, required mission energy, and the implications of the Incessant Obsolescence Postulate (Where newer probes pass prior probes). It is found that the earliest interstellar probe that could satisfy a societal patience of a 75-yr mission duration could probably not be achieved for another 2-4 centuries. Projections of optimum launch conditions that take into account Incessant Obsolesce Postulate are offered, showing that the postulate collapses under several conditions. The data and assumptions behind these conclusions are offered to convey the bands of uncertainty and for further scrutiny.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-10.D4.2.7.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.