TEN-YEAR FORECAST FOR LAUNCHES AND MARKETS FOR REUSABLE SUBORBITAL VEHICLES

Paper number

IAC-12,E6,1,5,x16113

Author

Ms. Carissa Christensen, The Tauri Group, United States

Coauthor

Ms. Elaine Gresham, The Tauri Group, United States

Coauthor

Ms. Kate Maliga, The Tauri Group - Consulting, United States

Coauthor

Ms. Emma Hinds, The Tauri Group, United States

Coauthor

Mr. Paul Guthrie, The Tauri Group, United States

Year

2012

Abstract

This paper summarizes the findings of a ten-year forecast of markets and launches for reusable suborbital vehicles. The study will quantify the size of seven distinct suborbital market segments, forecasted over a 10-year period.

The seven markets, defined by similar purpose, activities, and customers, are:

\begin{itemize}\item Commercial human spaceflight\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}\item Basic and applied research\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}\item Aerospace technology test and demonstration\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}\item Remote sensing\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}\item Education\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}\item Media & PR\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}\item Point-to-point transportation	\end{itemize}

This forecast will combine projections of demand for suborbital spaceflight with an analysis of the available supply.  This study will investigate the motivation of the customers in each segment, why they buy, when they will buy, and how likely are they to buy.  The Tauri Group will project that demand over time, based on real-world factors, and take into consideration competing products or services which would diminish market share of reusable suborbital vehicles.  

The methodology for analyzing each market segment is customized to the particular market dynamics. All analysis combines rigorous open-source research, interviews with industry leaders, and quantitative analysis of existing and future funding sources. The study will also include extensive interviews and surveys of end users of spaceflight services, and a direct survey of high- and ultra-high net worth individuals.

Demand in each market segment is forecasted, and the aggregate of each market demand comprises the total demand for suborbital launches over a ten year period. In addition, the study will consider the available supply of launch vehicles and the factors that may affect their timing and capability.  The study will also ascertain major trends, characterize impediments, and where appropriate, identify potential actions for government and/or providers to potentially stimulate growth areas.

Space Florida and the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Commercial Space Transportation are co-funding this study effort.

Abstract document

IAC-12,E6,1,5,x16113.brief.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-12,E6,1,5,x16113.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.