Human spaceflight findings from the 10 year forecast of market demand for suborbital reusable vehicles
- Paper number
IAC-12,YPVF,2,5,x16334
- Author
Ms. Emma Hinds, The Tauri Group, United States
- Year
2012
- Abstract
This presentation will summarize the findings of a ten-year forecast of demand for suborbital reusable vehicles (SRVs), focusing on human space activities. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Space Florida commissioned The Tauri Group to perform this study,which quantifies the demand for SRVs within eight distinct suborbital market segments: commercial human spaceflight; basic and applied research; aerospace technology test and demonstration; satellite deployment; education; media and public relations; remote sensing; and point-to-point transportation. The methodology for analyzing each market segment is customized to the particular market dynamics. The study provides an integrated ten-year forecast of demand, with Year One representing the first year of regular SRV operations. The forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of what is known about the SRV industry and a broader focus on market dynamics, rather than a point estimate of the future. In a new market or industry, many unpredictable and sometimes unknown factors will shape outcomes. This presentation will discuss the study’s findings relevant for human space endeavors, including: \_The results of a survey of high net worth individuals, the primary target market for commercial human spaceflight \_Major study assumptions regarding future consumer behavior \_The potential for using suborbital vehicles for in-space personnel training \_The niche research applications for suborbital vehicles that require human interaction \_The actionable drivers of demand that were identified in the study.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
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