Determining appropriate failure probabilities for probabilistic analysis of new commerical spaceflight vehicles

Paper number

IAC-13,D6,1,9,x19313

Author

Mr. Chris Butt, Aerospace Concepts Pty Ltd, Australia

Coauthor

Mr. Michael Brett, Aerospace Concepts Pty Ltd, Australia

Coauthor

Mr. Shaun Wilson, Aerospace Concepts Pty Ltd, Australia

Coauthor

Mr. James Tisato, Aerospace Concepts Pty Ltd, Australia

Coauthor

Mr. Dan Padilha, Aerospace Concepts Pty Ltd, Australia

Year

2013

Abstract

This paper details the approach employed by Australia’s Range Safety Template Toolkit (RSTT) for determining Failure Response Mode (FRM) probabilities in aerospace vehicles. 

Specific reference is made to the application of these probabilities of new commerical spaceflight vehicles.

This is required for determining FRM probabilities in situations when manufacturer data on vehicle failure characteristics is not available. It employs relative probabilities of failure, along with a system level failure probability derived from historical data, to determine the absolute probability of failure of each FRM.

The methodology behind failure response modes is also discussed, along with the process used in identifying them from a list of vehicle failure possibilities.

Abstract document

IAC-13,D6,1,9,x19313.brief.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-13,D6,1,9,x19313.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.