On the abundance of extra terrestrial life after Kepler
- Paper number
IAC-15,A4,1,1,x28168
- Author
Dr. Amri Wandel, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
- Year
2015
- Abstract
Combining the recent results of the Kepler mission on the abundance of small planets within the Habitable Zone with a Drake equation formalism I derive the space density of biotic planets as a function of the (yet unknown) probability for the evolution of biotic life. I suggest that it may be estimated by future spectral observations of exoplanet biomarkers and that a biotic planet may be expected within 10 to 100 light years from Earth. Similarly I derive expressions for the distance to putative neighbor civilizations in terms of the probability for the evolution of a civilization and its average longevity. For optimistic probability values and broadcasting longevity of a few thousand years, the likely distance to the nearest civilizations detectable by SETI is of the order of a few thousand light years. The probability of detecting intelligent signals with present and future radio telescopes is calculated as a function of the Drake parameters.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-15,A4,1,1,x28168.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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