market analysis for a private space station

Paper number

IAC-17,B3,2,10,x37381

Author

Ms. Reina Buenconsejo, Science and Technology Policy Institute, United States

Coauthor

Dr. Bhavya Lal, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, United States

Coauthor

Dr. Keith Crane, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, United States

Coauthor

Dr. Danielle Piskorz, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, United States

Coauthor

Dr. Benjamin Corbin, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute, United States

Year

2017

Abstract

The United States has built and operated two space stations that have provided sustained human presence in low earth orbit: Skylab (1973-1979) and the International Space Station (ISS) (1998-present). Though the ISS recently received an extension on its operational life, its deconstruction in the 2024-2028 time frame poses important questions about continued human presence in LEO for the United States and its allies.
\newline \indent This paper presents a market analysis for a human-tended, privately owned and operated space station in the post-ISS period. Building on over 70 interviews with experts in government and the private sector, first, we identified twenty-one activities with the potential to generate revenues. They fell in six categories: space station for astronauts; satellite assembly and other activities supporting the satellite sector; manufacturing products for use in space and on earth; research and development, technology testing, and earth observations; and media, advertising, and education. Revenue estimates were generated in part by calculating cost savings or additional profits a product or service could generate by being produced on or levering a space station. We assumed that a station could capture all net savings from generating these various activities to cover station costs. Because of the uncertainly of revenue generation in a period almost ten years out, two revenue estimates were generated: one using conservative assumptions and another using more optimistic assumptions.  
\newline \indent Next we examined potential configurations and orbital inclinations for future space station concepts, and chose two configurations that best supported the various station activities to develop engineering cost models and engineering design parametric relationships to estimate annualized costs of construction and operations.  
\newline \indent A comparison of revenue streams and annualized station costs resulted in four potential net revenue scenarios (based on low/high revenue estimates and low/high annual cost estimates). Financial analysis determined that only one of these four scenarios provided an adequate rate of return to entice investors. 
\newline \indent In addition to providing net revenue estimates, this paper also provides a structured methodology that can be used with any set of assumptions regarding potential markets sizes and construction and operations costs. Finally, this paper identifies the role the U.S. government could play today to aid the emergence of a private station in the coming decade.

Abstract document

IAC-17,B3,2,10,x37381.brief.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-17,B3,2,10,x37381.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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