The development of an orbital risk assessment capability
- Paper number
IAC-18,A6,IP,14,x48165
- Author
Mr. Toby Harris, United Kingdom, UK Space Agency
- Year
2018
- Abstract
The arrival of new and innovative space systems, such as large constellations, comprising hundreds or even thousands of satellites, as well as in-orbit servicing missions proposing multiple spacecraft visitations, manoeuvres and orbital activities, pose significant regulatory challenges. This is true not only from a policy perspective but also a technical one. Under the 1972 Space Liabilities Convention, the licensing nation is ultimately responsible for any unexpected events in orbit, such as collisions or explosions that are caused by that nation’s licensed spacecraft. Hence it is imperative that the risks associated with licensing new and novel missions are quantified and understood. To meet this need, the UK Space Agency is currently developing a new in-house risk assessment capability, with the goal of better understanding both the likelihood and the consequences of unexpected in-orbit events for these new systems. A key aim will be to ensure that these new capabilities are underpinned with first-principles physics models and understanding, combined with high-fidelity data and validated thoroughly through-out. This briefing aims to detail the over-arching framework of the capability, illustrating how the modelling effort can be separated into likelihood and impact, and how the two can be brought together to define an overall financial risk. Plausible scenarios of interest (e.g. ones that could result in liability to the operator) are discussed, as well as modelling regimes necessary to understand the chances of these scenarios occurring, and metrics on how the risk can be quantitatively defined. A description of the current models development, following a strategy of parallel advancement of multiple models of varying fidelity, is detailed. In addition, preliminary results are provided and assessed for relevant mission profiles of interest to the UK. Finally, a development schedule for the capability over the next few years is discussed.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
(absent)