Commercial Lunar Crater Prospector Architecture and Economic Assessment
- Paper number
IAC-18,D4,5,1,x42264
- Author
Mr. Roger X. Lenard, United States, LPS
- Year
2018
- Abstract
There exists increasing evidence that a market for a propellant depot in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) could become a realistic, financially viable option. Recently, at a cis-lunar marketplace held in Centennial, CO, the United Launch Alliance announced that it was willing to pay for propellant in LEO. Prices in LEO were stated to be bid in a range between $3,000/kg and $7,000/kg. Propellant in Lunar Orbit was bid at $1,000/kg. From the perspective of this assessment, with all its assumptions and caveats, the author uses historic and proposed mission costs to establish a baseline for a commercially viable lunar polar orbiting crater prospecting mission. Conditions for a compelling financial case in order to attract financing requires understanding cost and market drivers. Our proposed market for crater samples from Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs) include, (but not limited to), National Space Agencies, commercial entities seeking to establish a basis for profitable use of Space Mineral Resources, private research institutions, universities, and other entities interested in engaging in lunar finance. One such entity may be a LEO propellant Depot. This implies that perhaps extraterrestrial resources might be a feasible feedstock source. This case study analyzes the potential that a commercial prospecting mission, capable of obtaining in-depth samples from a multitude of locations and returning them to (ISS) for assay. The author employs an architecture employing orbiting tether systems for the initial sample collection and ultimately, if the extractive prospects warrant, to expand this to a complete resource utilization concept. At this juncture, the author has used as a baseline, a mission value to NASA, (for example) a price to NASA of 30% of the present value for a Mars Sample Return mission, not for a single 300 gram sample, but for 10 to 20 one kg samples from each of one PSR crater on the south pole and one on the north pole. For other non-National Space Agency customers, a price point of $75M/kg from a unique location is hereby established. We propose use of the International Space Station, where infrastructure exists to independently perform the assay, and any planetary protection protocols since it is available and would be a trusted agent for the assay results. If a proposition is to be made for the use of lunar extraterrestrial resources in space for a stated emerging market, then a coherent financial and risk assessment process can be started; this is the first step.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
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