optimized re-entry time prediction of molniya orbit objects

Paper number

IAC-19,A6,9,10,x49605

Author

Mr. Harishkumar Sellamuthu, India, Karunya University

Coauthor

Dr. Ram Krishan Sharma, India, Karunya University

Coauthor

Mr. Benjamin John Solomon, France, Institut Supérieur de l'Aéronautique et de l'Espace (ISAE)

Coauthor

Mr. Srinath Ravichandran, India, AgniKul Cosmos

Coauthor

Mr. Syed Peer Mohamed Shah Khadri, India, AgniKul Cosmos

Year

2019

Abstract

Space debris, a threat to the stable and safe space operations environment, at times endanger terrestrial life. The long-term stabilization of space debris population level is critical for future launch activities. One of the guidelines recommended by IADC is limiting the post-mission lifetime to 25 years [1]. With low perigee and high apogee, the orbital motion in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) is governed by extreme dynamical perturbations. HEO objects can either have longer lifetime due to raised perigee altitude or disintegrate at sharp re-entry angles due to the lowered perigee altitude [2]. 


Molniya orbit is a type of HEO for repeated swath coverage at high latitudinal regions. Molniya satellites with higher mass and large surface area have complex orbital dynamics which produces not a typical oscillation in the perigee altitude. The orbital evolution and re-entry time estimation are sensitive to the initial parameters. Higher accuracy in lifetime prediction can be achieved by having accurate initial conditions. Significantly uncertain orbital parameters from two line elements (TLE) are ballistic coefficient ({\it B}) and eccentricity ({\it e}). {\it B} depends on the drag model and area to mass ratio of the object, which captures the attitude dynamics.


By response surface methodology [3] and genetic algorithm [4], {\it B} and {\it e} were optimally estimated to predict the re-entry epoch of upper stages in geostationary transfer orbits [5–6]. In the present study, re-entry prediction of Molniya satellites is done as optimal estimation problem using traditional and regularized orbit propagators. Re-entry times of Molniya objects are predicted with relative error less than 5\% when compared with TLE data.
 



[1] Klinkrad, H., ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook, 1st edn. ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany, 1999


[2] Sharma, R.K., Bandyopadhyay, P., Adimurthy, V., “Consideration of lifetime limitation for spent stages in GTO,” Advances in Space Research 2004, 34(5), 1227–1232


[3] Myers, R.H., Montgomery, D.C., Response Surface Methodology, Wiley, New York, 1995


[4] Sharma R.K., Bandyopadhyay P., Adimurthy V., “Lifetime estimation of upper stages re-entering from GTO by genetic algorithm with response surface approximation,” International Astronautical Congress, 2006, IAC-06-B6.2.11


[5] Mutyalarao, M., Sharma, R.K., “Optimal reentry time estimation of an upper stage from geostationary transfer orbit,” Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets 2010, 47(4), 686–690


[6] Mutyalarao, M., Sharma, R.K., “On prediction of re-entry time of an upper stage from GTO,” Advances in Space Research 2011, 47(11), 1877–1884

Abstract document

IAC-19,A6,9,10,x49605.brief.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-19,A6,9,10,x49605.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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