Lunar entrepreneurship, future challenges and risks to be managed. A comprehensive study of future lunar economy issues, which shall be solved today.

Paper number

IAC-23,D4,2,3,x78658

Author

Prof. Katarzyna Malinowska, Kozminski University, Poland

Coauthor

Mr. Michał Szwajewski, Poland

Coauthor

Mr. Bartosz Malinowski, Polish Academy of Sciences - Space Research Centre, Poland

Year

2023

Abstract

The Space Agencies and private entrepreneurs preparing the programmes are in the development phase for lunar exploration missions, habitats, or initiatives related to the Moon. Current experience shows that landing on the Moon is not easy. However, it will happen again in the near future, as access to the launch services will be more accessible. The question considered by the authors as the main subject matter of the paper is what will be the possible next steps for the decision makers around the World and the business community, once two, three or more manned spacecraft land on the Moon? Are the public institutions and business community prepared for a situation of manned landings on the Moon actually materializing? Do we need and do we have a comprehensive solution? Finally, could these steps to be taken resemble the policies related to frontier development taken in the past? 
The paper objective is to investigate and propose some options with respect to (1) business strategy and risk management (2) regulatory framework (3) institutional framework.
The business strategy in the current times seems to be an arms race as nearly each space faring Nation is preparing for colonizing the Moon. Apart from US, there are main European players such as Italy, Germany and France, as well as the teams from China, Japan, Israel, India, and others. Based on the short look at the Moon exploration investment, each Country's ambitions may imply a risk of tension. The authors' objective is to analyze the national programs of the main space faring countries and assess, whether there is a possibility to define business model satisfying all space actors. Or maybe such a business model exists already and it’s the so-called regulatory framework.
In the context of a regulatory framework, we should consider whether it will still make sense to rely on space treaties (having in mind an assumption of no chance of changing them or adopting new ones), or perhaps bet on an 'Artemis Accords-like' piece of 'legislation' agreed upon by the countries that would participate in such a joint project - assuming, as the Artemis Accords do, full compliance with the basic principles embodied in the space treaties. Or rely on a bottom-up method, in which space explorers, based on the national laws to which they are subject, would create industry best practices.

Abstract document

IAC-23,D4,2,3,x78658.brief.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-23,D4,2,3,x78658.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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