Debris proliferation modeling and risk analysis for cislunar orbits

Paper number

IAC-24,A6,2,7,x85936

Author

Mr. Arjun Chhabra, Princeton University, United States

Coauthor

Mr. Amlan Sinha, Princeton University, United States

Coauthor

Prof. Ryne Beeson, Princeton University, United States

Year

2024

Abstract

With increased space traffic in the cislunar regime, it becomes important to characterize the dynamics of orbital debris proliferation across key orbit families. Unlike orbital debris in Low Earth Orbits (LEO), which can decay via reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere, cislunar orbital debris may remain indefinitely suspended or accrete in key orbits. Additionally, most advantageous orbits in the cislunar regime are at a mechanical energy level such that orbital debris generated in their neighbourhoods will eventually proliferate throughout the entire domain, and may enter Earth-bound transfer orbits. This, coupled with the lack of space situational awareness capabilities in the cislunar regime, poses a severe operational risk for any spacecraft in these orbits, and a thorough characterization of the debris proliferation dynamics becomes necessary to derive the necessary preventative measures for orbital debris mitigation. 

While current research provides probabilistic analyses for the risks posed by orbital debris in the cislunar regime, they primarily focus on impacts from existing debris particles or re-contact with a spacecraft’s own ejecta. Our work proposes to address the gap relating to the dynamics of cislunar debris generation, proliferation, and accretion in a more general sense, characterizing the probabilistic dynamics of orbital debris transferring between orbits. We situate our work in the context of key orbits for Artemis program elements, specifically the Lunar Gateway. Our work focuses on leveraging existing techniques for modelling orbital debris generation, such as Monte Carlo methods, and developing low-dimensional debris proliferation model incorporating considerations for the strong nonlinearity and chaotic properties of cislunar dynamics.

We present a probabilistic risk analysis for (quasi-)periodic Earth-Moon L1 and L2 libration points, Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit families, distant retrograde orbits, and low-lunar orbits, using a graph-theoretic perspective wherein we represent each family of orbits as a node within a fully-connected directed graph and characterize the strength of connection along the edge between each node. Assigning a statistical estimate of debris generation at each node would then allow us to study the probability of debris generated in one family of orbits proliferating to other locations in the cislunar regime. These estimates could prove useful for identifying key locations for space-situational awareness satellites and mission design for future cislunar endeavors, as well as informing the development of operational standard practices and preventative measures for space traffic in these orbits. This work has been generously funded by NASA ROSES Grant 80NSSC24K0058.

Abstract document

IAC-24,A6,2,7,x85936.brief.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-24,A6,2,7,x85936.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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