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  • session 2

    Title

    Modelling and Risk Analysis

    Description

    This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance.

    Date

    2018-10-02

    Time

    09:45

    Room

    ZARM 1

    IPC members
    • Co-Chair: Mr. Daniel Oltrogge, Analytical Graphics, Inc., United States;

    • Co-Chair: Dr. Luciano Anselmo, ISTI-CNR, Italy;

    • Rapporteur: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;

    papers

    Order

    Time

    Paper title

    Mode

    Presentation status

    Speaker

    Affiliation

    Country

    1

    09:45

    A “Worn-out Net” Model for Analysis of Conflicts in a Multitude of Orbital Objects

    15

    confirmed

    Ms. Tatyana V. Labutkina

    Dnepropetrovsk National University named after Oles' Gonchar

    Ukraine

    2

    10:00

    estimation of orbital environment incorporating environmental change due to major breakups utilizing in-situ measurements

    15

    confirmed

    Dr. Masahiro Furumoto

    Kyushu University

    Japan

    3

    10:15

    Demisability of critical spacecraft components during atmospheric re-entry

    15

    confirmed

    Mr. Patrik Kärräng

    Hypersonic Technology Göttingen

    Germany

    4

    10:30

    Development of new analytical models for pressure and heat flux distribution on space debris afterbodies

    15

    withdrawn

    Mr. Vincent Drouet

    ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab

    France

    5

    10:45

    Improved representation of destructive spacecraft re-entry from analysis of high enthalpy wind tunnel tests of spacecraft structures and equipment

    15

    confirmed

    Dr. James Beck

    Belstead Research Ltd

    United Kingdom

    6

    11:00

    Particle flux analysis with the updated MASTER model

    15

    confirmed

    Dr. Carsten Wiedemann

    TU Braunschweig, Institute of Space Systems

    Germany

    7

    11:15

    GEO and MEO Space Debris Model Improvement Based on the Catalog of KIAM RAS

    15

    withdrawn

    Dr. Mikhail Zakhvatkin

    Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of RAS

    Russian Federation

    8

    11:30

    Expected collision avoidance manoeuvre rates in DRAMA-ARES based on a history of Conjunction Data Messages

    15

    confirmed

    Dr. Vitali Braun

    IMS Space Consultancy

    Germany

    9

    11:45

    Assessing Potential for Cross-Contaminating Breakup Events from LEO to GEO

    15

    confirmed

    Dr. Darren McKnight

    Integrity Applications Incorporated (IAI)

    United States

    10

    12:00

    Effects of passive de-orbiting through drag and solar sails and electrodynamic tethers on the space debris environment

    15

    confirmed

    Dr. Camilla Colombo

    Politecnico di Milano

    Italy

    11

    12:15

    Examination of DebriSat Fragment Characteristics for Improved Fragmentation Modeling

    15

    confirmed

    Mr. Marlon Sorge

    The Aerospace Corporation

    United States

    12

    12:30

    Use of an Optimisation Technique for the Correlation of Aerodynamic Data on Geometric Primitives for Debris Demise Calculations

    15

    withdrawn

    Mr. Nathan Donaldson

    University of Oxford

    United Kingdom