IAF Digital Library

2

session 2

Title: Modelling and Risk Analysis
Description: This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance.
Date: 2019-10-22
Time: 09:45
Room: 150B

IPC members

Co-Chair: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;
Co-Chair: Dr. Carmen Pardini, ISTI-CNR, Italy;
Rapporteur: Mr. Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC Corp., United States;

papers
Order	Time	Paper title	Mode	Presentation status	Speaker	Affiliation	Country
1	09:45	Numerical investigation on the standard catastrophic break-up criteria	14	confirmed	Dr. Martin Schimmerohn	Fraunhofer EMI	Germany
2	09:59	Fragments distribution prediction for ENVISAT catastrophic fragmentation	14	withdrawn	Dr. Lorenzo Olivieri	CISAS "G. Colombo" - University of Padova	Italy
3	10:13	A semi-analytical approach to low-thrust collision avoidance manoeuvre design	14	confirmed	Dr. Juan Luis Gonzalo	Politecnico di Milano	Italy
4	10:27	Long-Term Environmental Effects of Deploying the OneWeb Satellite Constellation	14	confirmed	Prof. Hugh Lewis	University of Southampton	United Kingdom
5	10:41	How an aware usage of the long-term dynamics can improve the long-term situation in the LEO region	14	confirmed	Dr. Elisa Maria Alessi	IFAC-CNR	Italy
6	10:55	NewSpace and its implications for space debris models	14	confirmed	Mr. Samuel Diserens	University of Southampton	United Kingdom
7	11:09	Impacts of Large Constellations and Mission Disposal Guidelines on the Future Space Debris Environment	14	confirmed	Mr. Gregory Henning	The Aerospace Corporation	United States
8	11:23	Variance-Covariance Significant Figure Reduction and Its Effect on Collision Probability Calculation	14	confirmed	Dr. Salvatore Alfano	Analytical Graphics, Inc.	United States
9	11:37	What is the Cost of NOT Doing Debris Remediation NOW?	14	confirmed	Dr. Darren McKnight	Integrity Applications Incorporated (IAI)	United States
10	11:51	evaluation of active debris removal strategy using a debris evolutionary model	14	confirmed	Dr. Satomi Kawamoto	Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)	Japan
11	12:05	the optimal collision avoidance maneuver with multiple objects in GEO	14	confirmed	Mr. Kota Sato	Kyushu University	Japan
12	12:19	Long-term evolution and lifetime analyses of geostationary transfer orbits with solar radiation pressure	14	confirmed	Mr. Shiwang Xing	Beihang University	China