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  • session 2

    Title

    Modelling and Risk Analysis

    Description

    This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active avoidance.

    Date

    2019-10-22

    Time

    09:45

    Room

    150B

    IPC members
    • Co-Chair: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;

    • Co-Chair: Dr. Carmen Pardini, ISTI-CNR, Italy;

    • Rapporteur: Mr. Daniel Oltrogge, Analytical Graphics, Inc., United States;

    papers

    Order

    Time

    Paper title

    Mode

    Presentation status

    Speaker

    Affiliation

    Country

    1

    09:45

    Numerical investigation on the standard catastrophic break-up criteria

    14

    confirmed

    Dr. Martin Schimmerohn

    Fraunhofer EMI

    Germany

    2

    09:59

    Fragments distribution prediction for ENVISAT catastrophic fragmentation

    14

    Dr. Lorenzo Olivieri

    CISAS "G. Colombo" - University of Padova

    Italy

    3

    10:13

    Transformation of satellite break-up distribution function using Gauss’ variational equations

    14

    Mr. Stefan Frey

    Politecnico di Milano

    Italy

    4

    10:27

    Long-Term Environmental Effects of Deploying the OneWeb Satellite Constellation

    14

    Prof. Hugh Lewis

    University of Southampton

    United Kingdom

    5

    10:41

    How an aware usage of the long-term dynamics can improve the long-term situation in the LEO region

    14

    Dr. Elisa Maria Alessi

    IFAC-CNR

    Italy

    6

    10:55

    Improvements and updates in the new MASTER model

    14

    Dr. Carsten Wiedemann

    TU Braunschweig, Institute of Space Systems

    Germany

    7

    11:09

    Impacts of Large Constellations and Mission Disposal Guidelines on the Future Space Debris Environment

    14

    confirmed

    Mr. Gregory Henning

    The Aerospace Corporation

    United States

    8

    11:23

    Variance-Covariance Significant Figure Reduction and Its Effect on Collision Probability Calculation

    14

    Dr. Salvatore Alfano

    Analytical Graphics, Inc.

    United States

    9

    11:37

    What is the Cost of NOT Doing Debris Remediation NOW?

    14

    confirmed

    Dr. Darren McKnight

    Integrity Applications Incorporated (IAI)

    United States

    10

    11:51

    evaluation of active debris removal strategy using a debris evolutionary model

    14

    Dr. Satomi Kawamoto

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

    Japan

    11

    12:05

    the optimal collision avoidance maneuver with multiple objects in GEO

    14

    Mr. Kota Sato

    Kyushu University

    Japan

    12

    12:19

    Long-term evolution and lifetime analyses of geostationary transfer orbits with solar radiation pressure

    14

    Mr. Xuhui Luo

    Beihang University

    China