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  • session 2

    Title

    Modeling and Risk Analysis

    type

    oral

    Description

    This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active collision avoidance.

    Date

    2023-10-04

    Time

    15:00

    Room

    BCC A6

    IPC members
    • Co-Chair: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;

    • Co-Chair: Mr. Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC Corp., United States;

    • Rapporteur: Dr. Carmen Pardini, ISTI-CNR, Italy;

    papers

    Order

    Time

    Paper title

    Mode

    Presentation status

    Speaker

    Affiliation

    Country

    1

    15:00

    Multi-perspective analysis of sustainability metrics characterising the debris environment

    13

    confirmed

    Mr. Lorenz Böttcher

    TU Braunschweig, Institute of Space Systems

    Germany

    2

    15:13

    Evaluation of the effectiveness of 5-year rule -- Impact on the orbital environment at each altitude by reducing the post-mission disposal lifetime

    13

    confirmed

    Dr. Satomi Kawamoto

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

    Japan

    3

    15:26

    Using Machine Learning to Predict Hypervelocity Fragment Propagation of Space Debris Collisions

    13

    confirmed

    Ms. Katharine Larsen

    Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

    United States

    4

    15:39

    Extension of ESA’s Survival And Risk Analysis tool with hemisphere and lattice shapes

    13

    confirmed

    Mr. MARTIN SPEL

    France

    5

    15:52

    Quantifying the Induced and Encountered Risk of Space Missions

    13

    confirmed

    Mr. Callum Wilson

    University of Strathclyde

    United Kingdom

    6

    16:05

    Large-scale mapping and analysis of collision avoidance manoeuvres with semi-analytical models

    13

    confirmed

    Dr. Manuel Sanjurjo-Rivo

    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

    Spain

    7

    16:18

    Modelling collision risk in space traffic: a network-based perspective

    13

    withdrawn

    Dr. Matteo Romano

    University of Namur (FUNDP)

    Belgium

    8

    16:31

    Collision risk estimation in multi-event scenarios

    13

    confirmed

    Mr. Óscar González Martínez

    GMV Aerospace & Defence SAU, Spain

    Spain

    9

    16:44

    Swarm intelligence collision avoidance method for LEO communication satellites

    13

    confirmed

    Ms. Kubra Mammadova

    Azercosmos, Space Agency of Republic of Azerbaijan

    Azerbaijan

    10

    16:57

    Dynamic characterisation of space debris position and velocity probability density functions and their impact on tracking performance

    13

    confirmed

    Dr. Sanat K Biswas

    IIIT Delhi

    India

    11

    17:10

    Data-Driven Event and Maneuver Frequency Estimation for Large-Scale Satellite Constellations

    13

    withdrawn

    Mr. Pol Mesalles Ripoll

    SpaceNav, LLC

    United States