IAF Digital Library

2

session 2

Title: Modeling and Risk Analysis
type: oral
Description: This session will address the characterization of the current and future debris population and methods for in-orbit and on-ground risk assessments. The in-orbit analysis will cover collision risk estimates based on statistical population models and deterministic catalogues, and active collision avoidance.
Date: 2025-10-02
Time: 15:00
Room: Room C4.10

IPC members

Co-Chair: Dr. Carmen Pardini, ISTI-CNR, Italy;
Co-Chair: Mr. Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC Corp., United States;
Rapporteur: Mr. Marlon Sorge, The Aerospace Corporation, United States;
Rapporteur: Dr. Noelia Sanchez Ortiz, Arribes Enlightenment, Spain;

papers
Order	Time	Paper title	Mode	Presentation status	Speaker	Affiliation	Country
1	15:00	Advancing Re-Entry Event Characterization: Astros Solutions’ Contributions to Space Safety and Re-entry risk Assessment	13		Dr. Matej Zigo	Astros Solutions s.r.o.	Slovak Republic
2	15:13	The risk on the ground and in the airspace posed by uncontrolled re-entries: should the growth observed in recent years be considered worrying?	13		Dr. Carmen Pardini	ISTI-CNR	Italy
3	15:26	Towards a Regional Monitoring and Early Warning System for Space Debris Reentry in Latin America	13		Prof. Juan Cruz Gonzalez Allonca	Interdisciplinary Center for Space Studies (CIEE)	Argentina
4	15:39	A parametric simulation of a spacecraft fragmentation: effect of mass, velocity, and impact point	13		Dr. Lorenzo Olivieri	University of Padova - DII/CISAS	Italy
5	15:52	Navigating the Skyfall: Assessing the Risk of Space Debris Re-entries on Aviation	13		Dr. Noelia Sanchez Ortiz	Arribes Enlightenment	Spain
6	16:05	Efficient analytical propagation and chain reaction modeling for long-term analysis of fragmentation events	13		Mr. yema paul	ISAE-Supaero University of Toulouse	France
7	16:18	Integrating Debris Mitigation Standards: The Evolution and Capabilities of ESA's DRAMA 4.0	13		Mr. Esfandiar Farahvashi	OKAPI:Orbits GmbH	Germany
8	16:31	A study of risk assessment metrics of non-operational objects in Geosynchronous orbit	13		Mr. Ryusuke Harada	Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)	Japan
9	16:44	Risk to Lunar-Surface and Orbital Assets from a High-Energy Breakup in Low Lunar Orbit	13		Dr. Joseph Gangestad	The Aerospace Corporation	United States
10	16:57	Space Debris Risks from Derelict Spacecraft	13	confirmed	Mr. Harry She	LeoLabs	United States
11	17:10	Addressing unaddressed launch risk with a topology-based LCOLA approach	13		Mr. Dan Oltrogge	COMSPOC Corp.	United States
1*	15:00	Evaluating Uncertainties in Destructive Satellite Re-entry: A Statistical Study on SOURCE	13	withdrawn	Ms. Bahar Karahan	Institute of Space Systems, University of Stuttgart	Germany
2*	15:13	Collision Risk from Spacecraft Breakups in Cislunar Space: A Case Study on the Lunar Gateway	13		Dr. Paolo Guardabasso	Exotrail	France
3*	15:26	Analysis of a systematic time delay between fragmentation events and debris cataloguing	13		Ms. Teresa Klinner-Teo	TU Braunschweig, Institute of Space Systems	Germany
4*	15:39	SPECS: A Fragmentation Estimation Framework for Solar Power Satellites and Integration into the NESSY Evolutionary Model	13		Mr. Pietro De Marchi	University of Strathclyde	United Kingdom
5*	15:52	SAFEguarding space assets: a novel method for collision risk estimation	13		Ms. Benedetta Margrethe Cattani	Ecosmic s.r.l.	Italy