forecast and analyze on the scale and structure of the space industry in the next decade

Paper number

IAC-09.E6.2.5

Author

Dr. cai hua, China

Year

2009

Abstract

More than half-century development, the central fields which the global space technology has been applying for has been transforming from the military and government department to the economy and society development industries. As the up-to-date and high-tech characters, and application in the information industry, resources field and biological science, the space technology is becoming the important drive power which can create the new technological revolution following the economy crisis. At the same time, as the rising economy mode the space industry which has been engendered with the space technology advancement is demonstrating the incredible market capacity and flourishing future and keeping the higher increased speed in the course of the economy declination, and will also to play the more important role to overcome the economy crisis and realize the global economy to recovery. So speaking of the policymaking or the space enterprises in every country, especially in the developing country in order to recovery the own society economy from the crisis rapidly, it is the significant to reach and analyze the development trend of the space industry scale and structure in the next decade.
    According to the status and development trend of the space industry in the recent years, the space industry can be composed by government investment and commercial activities in my opinions, which can be affected by the different factors. In the paper, the scale of government investment on the space will be forecasted based on the analysis of different countries space development strategy until the 2020 years, and the scale and structure of the commercial space will be forecasted by using the adaptable quantification model, especially in the satellite application industry, based on the analysis of commercial activities development courses and the influence brought by the economy and society activities.
    According to the analysis result, the conclusion on the scale and structure of the global space industry in the next decade can be made, which can be used as the feasible advices to the space policymakers and the aeronautics and space corporations.

Abstract document

IAC-09.E6.2.5.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-09.E6.2.5.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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