On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris
- Paper number
IAC-07-A6.1.06
- Author
Dr. Christopher Stokely, Barrios Technology, Inc., United States
- Coauthor
Prof. James Benbrook, United States
- Coauthor
Mr. Matthew Horstman, ESCG/ERC, United States
- Year
2007
- Abstract
A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed independently with some average rate as given by Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics the time interval between events is an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telephone networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models have not yet been empirically demonstrated until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are few deviations observed from that expected by Poisson statistics. Furthermore the results are independent of altitude and inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups but the Poisson nature of the time distribution indicate that such debris disperse rapidly enough in time to appear uncorrelated in observations.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-07-A6.1.06.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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