Analysis Of Collision Probability With TLE Data
- Paper number
IAC-07-A6.2.07
- Author
Mr. Chen Lei, National University of Defense Technology, China
- Year
2007
- Abstract
Now satellite collision probability must be considered to design the orbit. Some methods have been developed to acquire collision probability, and they are mainly based on the priori information of probability. Space debris, whose diameters are more than 1cm, are lethal threaten to satellite in orbit. Their motion can be predicted with precise orbit elements, such as Two-Line Elements (TLE). The method is presented to analyze collision probability with TLE data. The authors presented an analytic method of collision detection in IAC-04-IAA [1].5.12.P.02, which is based on SGP4/SDP4 models. In that paper we found that collision must happen in the two points of intersection between two orbits, and the trend of intersection points is determined by the perturbation. The trend can be used to acquire collision in long period quickly. The time and distance on points of intersection can be model by ARMA model, and they can be predicted with ARMA model. Thus the close time and distance can be computed directly with the use of ARMA model. It is efficient when the relationship is discussed among one satellite and 10000 objects. Weibull Distribution is used to draw inferences from statistical summaries of the data. Parameters of Weibull Distribution can then be found that achieve the maximum likelihood of the data. The statistics model is useful for space mission design. TLE data in recent years (2000~2006) are used to model collision probability of a chosen LEO satellite. And the theoretical assumptions are testified by probability plots and distribution tests.
- Abstract document