Recent Space Debris Modeling Activities of ISRO and Salient Results

Paper number

IAC-07-A6.2.02

Author

Mr. Ailyam Subramaniam Ganeshan, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), ISAC, India

Coauthor

Dr. Ram Krishan Sharma, Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), India

Coauthor

Dr. Anil Kumar A. K., Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), India

Year

2007

Abstract

ISRO also developed the models and software for statistical analysis of risk due to space debris and close approach of any of the debris to the functional satellite which involved carrying out in-depth studies in the area of space debris research and analysis, and specifically in the area of space debris modeling. The thrust areas of research in space debris models are (i) low Earth debris on-orbit breakup simulation (ASSEMBLE Model), based on the stochastic nature of the orbital characteristics of the fragments (ii) evolution of debris clouds based on the propagation of an equivalent object in a three dimensional bin of semi major axis, eccentricity, and the ballistic coefficient (a, e, B) together with a constant gain Kalman filter technique, (iii) the space debris environment in LEO based on the stochastic distributions (SIMPLE), (iv) the prediction of re-entry of risk objects based on numerical integration of KS element equations of motion with Genetic algorithm and with constant gain Kalman filter and (v) the orbital debris environment in GEO utilizing statistical distributions..

A linear method to estimate the components of velocity addition utilizing the differences in semi major axis, eccentricity, inclination and argument of perigee in a particular combination and sequence, which avoids singularity in computation, was developed. Further improving on this model, a fully nonlinear method to obtain velocity additions without any assumptions was also developed and utilized for the fragmentation events. A methodology, which has been successfully applied for the launches of ISRO, of the space debris proximity analysis in powered and orbital phase at the time of a satellite launch was developed.. Detailed studies were carried out to assess the influence of launch time on the orbital lifetime of high eccentricity Geo Transfer orbits. This study was used to analyze the orbital evolution of the orbiting upper stages of ISRO’s GSLV missions.

A long-term numerical propagator has been developed which includes the perturbation due to solar radiation pressure (SRP), third-body effects due luni-solar forces and Earth’s gravitation potential and the perigee height variation over one hundred years, for INSAT class of satellites was studied thoroughly with the initial perigee of the disposal orbit is taken to be as per the recommendations of the IADC. Based on the study it is evident that, for a few cases, the Sun pointed eccentricity vector is advantageous and the specification for eccentricity for the disposal orbit may not be required if placed in this orientation. The study indicates that for an epoch, there is an appropriate phasing of the eccentricity vector with respect to the Sun, which will ensure that the protected regions are not penetrated for higher initial disposal orbital eccentricity values also. 

This paper presents the salient aspects of these space debris-modeling efforts in ISRO and the results obtained there on.

Abstract document

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