Instability Of Historical LEO Debris Populations
- Paper number
IAC-07-A6.2.08
- Author
Dr. Hugh G. Lewis, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Coauthor
Dr. Graham G. Swinerd, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Coauthor
Ms. Rebecca Newland, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Coauthor
Ms. Aude Brunner, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Year
2007
- Abstract
Following recent studies indicating the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment has reached a point where the debris population would continue to increase even if no further space launches were performed, a new study has been conducted to identify the historical origin of this instability. The analysis period chosen is 1957 through 2157, providing a smooth transition between the known past environment and the projected future with a sufficient duration to reveal any increase in the LEO debris population. Ten versions of the historical period were simulated assuming no satellites were launched and no explosions occurred after 1 January of 1964, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996 or 2000. A total of 50 Monte Carlo runs were carried out and analysed for each version of the period using the DAMAGE environment model. Each Monte Carlo run simulated the > 10 cm historical debris environment, including collisions, explosions and launches (up to the dates specified above) and projected it to 1 January 2157. The analysis employed traditional metrics, such as the number of objects and the number of collisions, but also included the collision probability and measures of the potential impact energy that are outputs from the DAMAGE model. As such, the paper provides (a) the identification of the historical origins of the instability of the LEO debris populations and, (b) a characterisation of the environment at these critical times.
- Abstract document