Simulation Analysis of Space Debris Environment and Threat Pre-Warning

Paper number

IAC-07-A6.I.01

Author

Dr. Qi Lin, Beihang University, China

Coauthor

Mr. Zhi Li, China

Coauthor

Mr. Jiazhe Lai, China

Coauthor

Mr. Zhang Xiong, Beihang University, China

Year

2007

Abstract

It deals with the space debris environment and threat pre-warning, and focuses on the simulation analysis methods.The threat of space debris to space system and satellite communication is discussed first. The limitations of ground-based surveillance system while monitoring space debris are also listed, such as unable to supervise small-sized “danger debris”, and it’s hard to demonstrate and forecast the evolution of space debris.In order to provide reliable and applicable space debris environment dynamic data, the research of some representational space debris models is introduced in brief, including MASTER model, CODR model, IDES model, EVOLVE model, and DELTA model. ORDEM2000 (Orbital Debris Engineering Model 2000) is the latest space debris model promoted by NASA, which is a statistic model based on probability and used to evaluate debris collision risks. We focus on the ORDEM2000 model, and the debris throughout and distribution results are achieved based on simulation test data. In addition, as to orbit-based definite model, the actual orbits and threat degrees of space debris are demonstrated by means of simulation methods. This paper is divided into 5 parts: Part 1 is introduction, in which the threat of space debris and the limitations of current space debris surveillance are given; In Part 2 “Space Debris Models”, we discuss the research of building appropriate engineering models on the basis of observed debris data. In Part 3, the space debris throughout and distribution results is obtained based on ORDEM2000 model by means of simulation. Part 4 discusses the orbit-based definite model, the collision pre-warning methods--including apogee/perigee filtering, trajectory filtering, and time filtering--are utilized to simulate the possible threat in case of aerocraft is very near to debris. Part 5 is the summary, in which the conclusion is given.  
Keywords: space debris,  simulation,   space debris model,   threat pre-warning

Abstract document

IAC-07-A6.I.01.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-07-A6.I.01.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.