The Fast Debris Evolution Model
- Paper number
IAC-07-A6.I.03
- Author
Dr. Hugh G. Lewis, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Coauthor
Dr. Graham G. Swinerd, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Coauthor
Ms. Aude Brunner, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
- Year
2007
- Abstract
The ‘Particles-in-a-box’ (PIB) model introduced by Talent (1992) removed the need for computer-intensive Monte Carlo simulation to predict the gross characteristics of an evolving debris environment. The PIB model was described using a differential equation that allowed for tests of the stability of the LEO environment by a straightforward analysis of the equation’s coefficients. As part of an ongoing research effort to establish more efficient approaches to evolutionary modelling, a new PIB model has been developed. The model, entitled Fast Debris Evolution (FaDE), employs a first-order differential equation to describe the rate at which new objects are added and removed from the environment. Whilst Talent (1992) based the collision theory for the PIB approach on collisions between gas particles and adopted specific values for the parameters of the model from a number of references, the form and coefficients of FaDE were extracted from the outputs of a future projection produced by the DAMAGE high-fidelity model for objects > 10 cm. However, the differential equation described by the FaDE model was found to be of the same form as Talent’s equation (i.e. a quadratic). In line with the earlier work, the roots of the equation were determined, evaluated for stability and compared with Talent’s PIB model. The FaDE model has been implemented as a client-side, web-based service using Javascript embedded within a HTML document. Due to the simple nature of the algorithm, FaDE can deliver the results of future projections immediately in tabular and graphical format, with complete user-control over key simulation parameters. Historical and future projections for the > 10 cm low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment under a variety of different scenarios have been conducted and the results compared with predictions made using the DAMAGE environment model and 50 Monte Carlo runs. The future projection scenarios included Business As Usual (BAU), No Future Launches (NFL) and BAU with mitigation (including post-mission disposal). The results demonstrated that the new model was able to capture the same, average time-series of collisions and number of objects predicted by DAMAGE.
- Abstract document