A Problem of the Orbit Correction for the Near-Earth Asteroid Apophis

Paper number

IAC-07-C1.7.08

Author

Prof. Viacheslav Ivashkin, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, RAS, Russia

Coauthor

Mr. Cyrill Stikhno, Russia

Year

2007

Abstract

A hazard mitigation problem for the Apophis-Earth possible collision in 2036 is analyzed. Taking into account the asteroid size, its velocity and energy of the impact (about 800 megatons TNT), this collision would give a great hazard for the Earth and it is important to analyze its prevention. The asteroid orbit correction is studied in the Paper. 
There is described a method for determination of the asteroid hitting orbits that are close (within the dispersion ellipsoid) to the nominal one [1], go near the Earth in 2029 like this nominal orbit but have the impacts on the Earth after 2029. A set of these asteroid’s orbits that collide with the Earth in 2036 and give very narrow strip on the aim plane near the Earth in 2029 is determined and presented. 
A necessary correction of the asteroid orbit to prevent this asteroid-Earth collision is studied. The analysis is performed for some options of the correction strategy. Firstly, this is the correction of the hitting (in 2036) orbit to change its perigee distance of 2036 and deflect the asteroid from the Earth in 2036. Then, this is such a correction of the asteroid orbit, which deflects it from the Earth on the aim plane near the Earth in 2029. The two-impulse correction is analyzed, too. The value of the correction velocity impulse is given depending on the time of the correction [2]. It is shown that for the correction before 2029 the necessary velocity impulse will be less considerably than for the correction after 2029. Possibilities to use some technical effects for realization of this correction are estimated.
The study is supported by the Grant for the Scientific School NSc-2003.2003.1.
References
1. E.I. Yagudina and V.A. Shor. The orbit determination of (99942) Apophis=2004 MN4 from optical and radar data // All-Russian Conference “Asteroid-Comet Hazard – 2005”, 3-7 October 2005, St. Petersburg. Papers, pp. 355-358.
2. V.V. Ivashkin and C.A. Stikhno. An Analysis of a Correction Problem for the Orbit of the Near-Earth Asteroid Apophis // XXXI Academic Readings on Cosmonautics, 30 January - 2 February, 2007. Moscow, Russia. Papers, pp. 91-92.

Abstract document

IAC-07-C1.7.08.pdf

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IAC-07-C1.7.08.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

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