Stepping Stones to the Future: Achieving a Sustainable Lunar Outpost

Paper number

IAC-07-D3.1.06

Author

Mr. John C. Mankins, ARTEMIS Innovation Management Solutions, LLC, United States

Year

2007

Abstract

The current emphasis in the U.S. and internationally on lunar robotic missions is generally viewed as a precursor to possible future human missions to the Moon. As initially framed, the implementation of high level policies such as the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) might have been limited to either human lunar sortie missions, or to the testing at the Moon of concepts-of-operations and systems for eventual human missions to Mars.  However, recently announced (December 2006) U.S. goals go much further: these plans now place at the center of future U.S.—and perhaps international—human spaceflight activities a long-term commitment to an outpost on the Moon.

Based on available documents, a human lunar outpost could be emplaced as early as the 2020 through 2025 timeframe, and would involve numerous novel systems, new technologies and unique operations requirements.  As such, substantial investments in research and development  will be necessary prior to, during, and following the deployment of such an outpost.  It seems possible that such an outpost will be an international endeavor, not just the undertaking of a single country—and the U.S. has actively courted partners in the VSE.  However, critical questions remain concerning an international lunar outpost. What might such an outpost accomplish? To what extent will ‘sustainability’ be built into the outpost?  And, most importantly, what will be the outpost’s life cycle cost (LCC)?

This paper will explore these issues with a view toward informing key policy and program decisions that must be made during the next several years.  The paper will: (1) describe a high-level analytical model of a modest lunar outpost, (2) examine (using this model) the parametric characteristics of the outpost in terms of the three critical questions indicated above; and (3) present rough estimates of the relationships of outpost goals and ‘sustainability’ to LCC.  The paper will also consider possible outpost requirements for near term investments in enabling research and development in light of experiences in past advanced technology programs.  The paper will conclude with a series of summary findings and recommendations for civil space program leaders and key public policy stakeholders.  

Abstract document

IAC-07-D3.1.06.pdf

Manuscript document

IAC-07-D3.1.06.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).

To get the manuscript, please contact IAF Secretariat.