The Potential Of ‘information Acceleration’ For Forecasting Critical Parameters In The Space Tourism Market
- Paper number
IAC-07-E5.2.08
- Author
Mr. Peter Vandor, Austria
- Coauthor
Mr. Florian Schirg, Austria
- Year
2007
- Abstract
Commercial space tourism undoubtedly features the characteristics of a radical innovation. It offers fundamentally new products and services to new markets, satisfying consumer needs in a new, unprecedented way (Pearson, 1990). Unfortunately, the high degree of novelty also impedes the capability of traditional market forecasting techniques. As research has shown, consumers facing radical innovation often lack capacity of imagining complex future decision environments and tend to systematically overestimate risks, esthetics and minor product attributes (Veryzer, 1998). Due to the lack of historic information on product and context, social, technical and economic risks cannot be evaluated realistically and consumers take irrational decisions (Hoeffler, 2003). However, research conducted on space tourism has used traditional methods. Some of most cited studies base their forecasts on surveys, which offer the respondents little help in understanding the context of the space tourism in near and far future (Collins, 1994, 1995, 1996, O’Neil, 1998; Futron, 2002). Many studies base their forecasts on stated interests and desires, thus offering very limited insight into actual future behavior (Crouch, 2005). For a developing industry depending strongly on future individual perceptions of risk, this entails grave implications, since market research provides the planning framework for current public and private investments into space tourism. The need of more reliable methodology is evident. This paper will investigate the potential of 'information acceleration' (IA), a forecasting technique for high-risk, capital-intense radically new products developed by researchers from MIT. Using a combination of multimedia sources, IA generates a virtual environment in which customers can interact with an innovation "as if he or she were now in the market of the future" (Urban, 1997). Hereby, IA creates a context in which future decision parameters such as risk perception can be elaborated (Coltman, 2004). In previous research, IA has shown a very high level of accuracy (Urban, 1994, 1997). Also, first attempts of using IA for space tourism have proven successful (Crouch, 2005). The paper will review and summarize past research, and examine to what degree the studies were capable of creating future decision environments. It will then display the potential of IA for forecasting critical parameters (market size, price elasticity, rate and structure of diffusion) for the major industries in space tourism and, based on the evaluation of the status quo in market research, make suggestions on how to effectively implement IA in future research.
- Abstract document
- Manuscript document
IAC-07-E5.2.08.pdf (🔒 authorized access only).
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